Oscar Predictions 2018

Today’s blog post is a truly excellent Oscars predictions article by Media/Tech Services team member Jean-Luc Botbyl. He is associate editor, writer, and host of the Comics Dash podcast @wethenerdy and, as it turns out, totally underutilized by our department because the below article is pretty damn awesome. Way to create work for yourself, buddy.You … Continue reading “Oscar Predictions 2018”

Today’s blog post is a truly excellent Oscars predictions article by Media/Tech Services team member Jean-Luc Botbyl. He is associate editor, writer, and host of the Comics Dash podcast @wethenerdy and, as it turns out, totally underutilized by our department because the below article is pretty damn awesome. Way to create work for yourself, buddy.

You can find Jean-Luc on Letterboxd as jlbotbyl and on twitter as @J_LFett, and hopefully back on this blog in the future.

Take it away Jean-Luc!

***   ***   ***


Jean-Luc: There’s a lot to unpack with some of these, and I’m probably going to go pretty long, so rather than write a long-winded introduction I’ll just dive right in to my predictions.

Best Picture

Best Picture is, in my opinion, the most hotly contested it’s been in years. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was the early favorite, winning at both the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs. However, the film’s prospects have been hampered by a recent cavalcade of negative responses, leading me to believe Oscar voters will steer clear of it. So what will take home the top prize?
This is the prediction I’m most unsure of, but I believe the Oscar for Best Picture will ultimately go to Shape of Water. Similarly to last year’s winner, Moonlight, Del Toro’s latest offers both a strong progressive message and fits the (admittedly harmful) perception of what counts as an “Oscar film.” Sure, it’s a little on the weird side, as Oscar winners go–but it also seems to be the film with the fewest strikes against it, in the minds of the voters.
There is, however, one wild card: Get Out. The film won Best Film at last night’s Independent Spirit Awards, a ceremony with a strong track record of predicting Best Picture winners. Jordan Peele’s debut feature seemed to be out of contention thanks to unfair criticism from some Oscar voters, but this win puts it clearly back into the running.
It is worth noting that Shape of Water was not one of the nominees at the Spirit Awards, which confuses the race even further. Ultimately, I’m sticking to my guns on this one.
Prediction: Shape of Water


Best Director

Unlike Best Picture, Best Director appears to be a shoe-in for Guillermo Del Toro. He’s already won a number of major awards, including the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and Critics’ Choice. If there is a last minute upset, it will likely be at the hands of Jordan Peele, winning for Get Out. This is a bit of a longer shot than Best Picture, if only because the consensus so clearly indicates a win for Del Toro. Regardless, it’s hard to be unhappy with any of the nominees in this category, which features a mix of excellent debuts and career best works from established directors.
Prediction: Guillermo Del Toro


Best Actor in a Leading Role

Although Best Picture is hotly contested, this is the category I’ve had the most difficulty pinning down. Will the Academy give another nod to Daniel Day-Lewis as he exits the acting business? Or will a relative newcomer like Timothee Chalamet or Daniel Kaluuya be rewarded for fantastic performances? It’s hard to say, and as long as the winner isn’t Gary Oldman, you’ll hear no complaints from me.
If I were forced to put money on it, I think Day-Lewis would barely edge out the competition. His work in Phantom Thread approaches a career-best performance, so the award would be well deserved. Is it a safe choice? Of course. But both Chalamet and Kaluuya have long careers ahead of them, likely with other shots at this award. And if Day-Lewis is to be believed, this is his final performance–and what better way for the Academy to honor him than with one last award?
Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis


Best Actress in a Leading Role

As much as I would like to say this is as hard to predict as the Best Actor field, Frances McDormand seems like an absolute lock for her performance in Three Billboards. Ultimately, her performance is the one part of the film everyone agrees to be award-worthy. There’s plenty of precedent for her win too–she’s emerged with equivalent awards virtually everywhere else.
Honestly, the seeming lack of competition in this category is unfortunate. Both Saoirse Ronan and Sally Hawkins are technically in the conversation, and Meryl Streep is always hard for the Academy to pass up. As much as I would love to see Ronan win for her honest, gut-wrenching performance in Lady Bird, I just don’t see it happening.
Prediction: Frances McDormand


Best Actor in a Supporting Role

A month ago, I would have told you the same things about Sam Rockwell I did about Frances McDormand. However, considering his character is central to the critiques of Three Billboards, I’m no longer as confident. Is he still the front-runner? Yes, definitely. The question becomes: who is his actual competition? Certainly not Woody Harrelson, for a solid-but-not-quite-as-good performance in the same film. Christopher Plummer? No–he stole every scene in All the Money in the World, but his nomination is symbolic more than anything. Which leaves Richard Jenkins (Shape of Water) and Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project). Of these two, Dafoe is likely Rockwell’s strongest competition. I believe Jenkins probably should win, and would take Dafoe over Rockwell. Yet, I can’t shake the feeling that Rockwell’s success in equivalent categories earlier this year will culminate in a way on the largest stage.
Prediction: Sam Rockwell


Best Actress in a Supporting Role

It’s gotta be Laurie Metcalf right? Ultimately, her character is central to Lady Bird’s success, making up a significant portion of the film’s potent emotional core. In a field as stacked as this one, she certainly doesn’t have it locked up. The win could easily go to any of the other fantastic actresses nominated. That said, the excitement surrounding Metcalf’s performance has been intoxicating, and I feel safe predicting her win.
Prediction: Laurie Metcalf


Best Animated Feature Film

Ah yes, the category allowing everyone to ironically attach the rider of “Oscar nominated film” to every future reference made to Boss Baby. Was it really so difficult for the Academy to nominate…. just about any other animated film? After all The Lego Batman movie did come out in 2017.
So yeah, I’m a little bugged that it got snubbed. Even if it were to have been nominated, it wouldn’t change my predictions–this is ultimately a two film category. Coco and Loving Vincent are the two front runners, and both are treasures. Loving Vincent is truly unique among its peers, but if there’s one thing the Academy loves to honor, it’s Pixar. In addition to being a Pixar film, Coco represents an upswing in quality after The Good Dinosaur and Finding Dory, both of which received lukewarm responses. I would expect the lauded animation studio to pick up yet another award.
Prediction: Coco


Original Screenplay

I legitimately have no idea which film wins this category. I think, again, Three Billboards is out of contention. The Big Sick’s writing is snappy and fun, but I’m not convinced it’s what the Academy is looking for. Which leaves Get Out, Shape of Water, and Lady Bird–all of which are tremendous for a range of different reasons. I’m firmly in Lady Bird’s camp (though that’s true of every category it’s nominated for), but I wouldn’t be surprised if it loses to either Get Out or Shape of Water.
Prediction: Shape of Water


Adapted Screenplay

I didn’t much care for three out of the five films nominated in this category. Aaron Sorkin has never done anything for me, the best things about Logan have nothing to do with the script, and the Disaster Artist was competent at best. Of the two that remain, I prefer Call Me By Your Name to Mudbound, and believe the Academy will feel similarly. The film lives and dies on its screenplay, which may well be the year’s best overall.
Prediction: Call Me By Your Name


Cinematography

Even as someone who wasn’t as taken by Blade Runner 2049 as everyone else seemed to be, I was consistently impressed by just how beautiful the film was to look at. In large part, I have Roger Deakins to thank for the state of awe I was in as the film committed a range of excellent moments to film. In my mind, there’s no real competition in this category.
Prediction: Blade Runner 2049


Costume Design

Phantom Thread is a movie about fashion. Well, and a whole lot of other things, but c’mon. The protagonist (or antagonist, depending on how you look at things) is literally a designer! Yes, Beauty and the Beast was evocative of the animated film in the best ways, and Shape of Water’s costumes captured the era perfectly, so it’s hard to say for sure. Regardless of the competition, I’m going with Phantom Thread here.
Prediction: Phantom Thread


Original Score

For as much as I love Star Wars, this is another category where Phantom Thread should pull through easily. Hans Zimmer did career-best work on Dunkirk, crafting a score woven into the film so seamlessly it became a storytelling device. Nevertheless, Radiohead’s Jonny Greenwood put together a score just as essential to capturing the context and tone of Phantom Thread.
Prediction: Phantom Thread


Unfortunately, I can’t make well-informed predictions about Foreign Film, Documentary, or any of the Shorts categories. I wish I could, but they’re just starting to become readily available, and I simply haven’t been able to see enough of them yet. I was hoping to get through all of them before the Oscars, but unfortunately it looks like I won’t have all of them under my belt until the end of the month.

Watch this year’s Oscar nominees

The Oscar nominees for 2017 are out! Keep in mind that awards are political and determined by the arbitrary makeup of whichever group is voting for them. That said, this year’s nominations already seem richer and more varied than usual. There’s far greater diversity, led not just by Moonlight and the recent hit Hidden Figures … Continue reading “Watch this year’s Oscar nominees”

The Oscar nominees for 2017 are out!

Keep in mind that awards are political and determined by the arbitrary makeup of whichever group is voting for them. That said, this year’s nominations already seem richer and more varied than usual. There’s far greater diversity, led not just by Moonlight and the recent hit Hidden Figures but across the board in acting and production categories. Most shocking for us, at least, was the Best Documentary nomination for O.J.: Made in America, the first Oscar nod for ESPN Films.

As always happens, most of the Oscar nominees were released late last year. You’ll have to go to the theaters to see La La Land, but we have a few of the nominated films available to check out.

Hell or High WaterHU DVD 13629
Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, Best Film Editing, Best Original Screenplay

Captain FantasticHU DVD 13625
Best Actor

Kubo and the Two StringsHU DVD 13637 and HU BLU 13637
Best Animated Feature, Best Visual Effects

ZootopiaHU DVD 13259
Best Animated Feature

O.J.: Made in AmericaHU DVD 13289 and HU BLU 13289
Best Documentary Feature

Life, AnimatedHU DVD 13661
Best Documentary Feature

Hail, Caesar!HU DVD 13258
Best Production Design

The LobsterHU DVD 13642
Best Original Screenplay

Live up the Oscars glitz right here in DC

We’ve been more mum about the Oscars this year than usual. Maybe the controversies soured us a little bit. Then again, hey, the Oscars are on Sunday! That was fast! Most people would be comfortable watching at home or catching up on the results the next morning, but a certain level of Hollywood nerd might … Continue reading “Live up the Oscars glitz right here in DC”

We’ve been more mum about the Oscars this year than usual. Maybe the controversies soured us a little bit. Then again, hey, the Oscars are on Sunday! That was fast!

Most people would be comfortable watching at home or catching up on the results the next morning, but a certain level of Hollywood nerd might want something a little… flashier. Enter the Washington Post‘s Going Out Guide’s list of the cities biggest, glitziest Oscar parties.

A few restaurants and bars in the area have specials for the event, but the two clear highlights are the Arlington Cinema ‘n’ Drafthouse and Malmaison. Arlington’s film-and-theater venue will host a full party complete with an Oscar win pool and an autographed movie poster auction. Malmaison, going above and beyond the call of duty, is rolling out a red carpet with imitation paparazzi and press interviews. Not everyone will want something that showy, but if you want the full Oscar experience locally, Malmaison’s (pricey) event sounds close to the real deal.

This is all a bunch of hoopla around an arguably meaningless, indulgent awards show, but for film people, it’s our meaningless indulgence. This is the one time a year when broader culture talks about the artistic accomplishments of film, and we’re going to celebrate that with a mock red carpet.

This year’s Oscars remind about the importance of cinematography

This year’s Oscar nominations are out, with the usual mix of surprises (Mad Max!) and disappointments (whitewashing across the board). But the one incontestable standout out on the list is the Achievement in Cinematography award. 2016’s lineup might be one of the most competitive races ever. It’s too easy to lump cinematography in with the … Continue reading “This year’s Oscars remind about the importance of cinematography”

This year’s Oscar nominations are out, with the usual mix of surprises (Mad Max!) and disappointments (whitewashing across the board). But the one incontestable standout out on the list is the Achievement in Cinematography award. 2016’s lineup might be one of the most competitive races ever.

It’s too easy to lump cinematography in with the technical categories (which is what the Academy does), but this award is one of the most important to the filmmaking process. Directors receive all the credit for how a film looks, but skilled cinematographers are the ones who execute their vision. For examples, read The Beat‘s summary of famous directors and cinematographers who teamed up: when you watch a Christopher Nolan film, the tone and composition of those images were chosen by his cinematographer Wally Pfister. Don’t underestimate a great cinematographer.

All five nominated films are outstanding, and a four in particular represent exceptional achievements and pedigrees.

  • Robert Richardson’s work on The Hateful Eight was famously the first Ultra Panavsion 70 production in decades, and the work shows.
  • Mad Max: Fury Road has been considered one of the all-time greatest action movies thanks to John Seale’s surreal camera work.
  • Emmanuel Lubezki has won the cinematography Oscar for the past two years for good reason, and he stands a chance to repeat for his gripping work on The Revenant.
  • Roger Deakins’s nod for Sicario is his thirteenth nomination, but the legendary DP has never won an Academy Award yet (?!).

Of the five nominees, only Mad Max: Fury Road is currently available in the library (HU DVD 12486), but Carol, The Revenant, and The Hateful Eight are still in theaters. If you can see all of them, remember that someone sat behind that camera to get those gorgeous – and this year, chaotic – shots.

See Leonardo DiCaprio’s next big (award-winning?) film early!

November and December are the peak release months for prestige films. Academy Award nominees are announced in January, and the big hopefuls have a habit of popping up right before the deadline. We’ve been fortunate enough to share passes to a few of these movies, but we’re saving the biggest for the end of the … Continue reading “See Leonardo DiCaprio’s next big (award-winning?) film early!”

November and December are the peak release months for prestige films. Academy Award nominees are announced in January, and the big hopefuls have a habit of popping up right before the deadline. We’ve been fortunate enough to share passes to a few of these movies, but we’re saving the biggest for the end of the semester…

We have advance passes to see The Revenant, director Alejandro González Iñárritu’s upcoming frontier movie starring Leonardo DiCaprio! The Revenant is in serious contention for Best Picture, and DiCaprio is an early favorite to win Best Actor – potentially his first Oscar. And you can see it almost a month before everyone else. Lucky you!

(Plus, there will be a Q&A afterwards with supporting actor Will Poulter!)

We have only 40 admit-two passes to give away for this screening on Thursday, December 3 at 7pm at the Georgetown Loews 14. Follow this link to redeem your pass before they’re gone. This screening will no doubt be packed, so you’ll need to arrive way in advance of the 7pm start time to ensure that you get a seat. Passes don’t guarantee that you’ll get in!

Snag a pass now so you can lord it over your family for Thanksgiving! Or, because it’s an incredibly exciting movie that you can see weeks early for free before it becomes a hot topic.

Meet Chuck Workman, the Oscar montage man

There’s really nothing else we have to say about the Oscars last night apart from congratulating Birdman for its big win. Instead, let’s direct your attention to one of the most important people behind the scenes at the biggest award show of the year. He’s Chuck Workman, and he creates the clips played during the … Continue reading “Meet Chuck Workman, the Oscar montage man”

There’s really nothing else we have to say about the Oscars last night apart from congratulating Birdman for its big win. Instead, let’s direct your attention to one of the most important people behind the scenes at the biggest award show of the year. He’s Chuck Workman, and he creates the clips played during the Oscar ceremonies.

NPR put together a great profile about Workman and his twenty years of experience cutting clips for the Oscars. There’s a ton of skill on display, whether that’s matching cuts for a montage, reducing a film to a highlight reel, or finding a single great scene from an actor’s entire career. Everyone in the industry seems to have great respect for him and his talents. You’ve gotta respect his craft, even if his interview is tinged with some disdain towards new media.

Workman is one of the many people who gets overlooked when dolling out credit to the film industry, and we always love to see more attention thrown their way.

A radical proposal: what if the Oscars removed nominations?

The Oscars are this Sunday, and although we’re as excited as every year, there’s a certain level of predictability in every ceremony. A few months ago, the current Oscar race was considered one of the most competitive of all time, but the past weeks of tertiary award shows have made it clear who will win … Continue reading “A radical proposal: what if the Oscars removed nominations?”

The Oscars are this Sunday, and although we’re as excited as every year, there’s a certain level of predictability in every ceremony. A few months ago, the current Oscar race was considered one of the most competitive of all time, but the past weeks of tertiary award shows have made it clear who will win most of the awards. Best Picture and Best Director are down between Birdman and Boyhood. Julianne Moore and Patricia Arquette will win the actress categories. Even the Best Actor category, a field of overwhelming talent, is now just between Michael Keaton and Eddie Redmayne.

So how do you bring back the surprise? Vulture writer Adam Sternbergh has an interesting idea: never reveal the nominees.

Sternbergh points out that the Oscar nomination announcements are often more exciting and talked-about than the winners themselves. Consider all the ink spilled about Selma‘s nomination snubs this year; there will certainly be less attention if the film doesn’t win Best Picture or Best Song. It would probably never fly for a number of reasons (practicality chief among them), but Sternbergh’s proposal would involve revealing the nominees at the event itself, bringing some drama and immediacy back to the ceremony.

The Oscars’s problems are well-documented and possibly over-discussed, but much of that criticism focuses on the structure of the Academy and its voting process. We give Sternbergh points for thinking outside the box in an attempt to repair the ceremony.

Everything is Oscars! See the Academy Award nominees that have hit DVD

Earlier today, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced the nominations for this year’s Oscars ceremony. It’s a solid if unsurprising list: Birdman and Boyhood earned big nods, and Jake Gyllenhaal is sadly nowhere in sight. For a full list of nominees that you’ll have to start learning the names of, check out … Continue reading “Everything is Oscars! See the Academy Award nominees that have hit DVD”

Earlier today, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced the nominations for this year’s Oscars ceremony. It’s a solid if unsurprising list: Birdman and Boyhood earned big nods, and Jake Gyllenhaal is sadly nowhere in sight. For a full list of nominees that you’ll have to start learning the names of, check out the Washington Post’s list.

(ADDENDUM: One of our staff members points out that this is the whitest and most male Oscar ceremony in decades. No women are nominated in the major awards outside of the actress categories; Iñárritu is the only person of color in those categories. Somewhat a letdown considering the diversity among directors and writers this year.)

Most of the nominated films were released in the last few months, as tends to happen for award-seeking movies, so very few are available on DVD yet. We have a few in process (Boyhood, Gone Girl, and Guardians of the Galaxy are on their way…), but a handful of the foreign and documentary films have already seen home video release. And to be honest, those are the ones you probably needed to watch anyway.

There’ll probably be repertoire theaters replaying some of the nominees in the coming weeks, but if you find yourself in the library, consider watching these award contenders in advance of the big ceremony.

The Grand Budapest Hotel – HU DVD 11444
Nominated for Best Picture, Best Director, Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design, Best Original Screenplay, Best Original Score, Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Production Design

The Lego Movie – HU DVD 11466
Nominated for Best Original Song

Ida – HU DVD 11538
Nominated for Best Cinematography, Best Foreign Language Film

Finding Vivian Maier – HU DVD 11547
Nominated for Best Documentary Feature

Maleficent – HU DVD 11584
Nominated for Best Costume Design

The film event of the year: We update our Best Pictures Pinterest!

Tonight, nine films will battle for the ultimate honor in cinema: a place on our Best Picture Winners Pinterest board.* This esteemed list contains 83 of the greatest films of all time, as voted on each year by the film community. From modern successes like No Country for Old Men to classics like Gone of … Continue reading “The film event of the year: We update our Best Pictures Pinterest!”

Tonight, nine films will battle for the ultimate honor in cinema: a place on our Best Picture Winners Pinterest board.* This esteemed list contains 83 of the greatest films of all time, as voted on each year by the film community. From modern successes like No Country for Old Men to classics like Gone of the Wind and Ben-Hur, this highly prestigious Pinterest board is a Who’s Who of a century of quality films. Controversy abounds in this list, such as the decision to pin How Green Was My Valley in 1941 over Citizen Kane and The Maltese Falcon, but this Pinterest board is still widely regarded as the standard-bearer for film acclamation.

Each films on this list of available for checkout in the AU Library. Follow the links on each pin to see whether it’s available.

*Additionally, movies added to this Pinterest board are also presented with an Academy Award.

What you won’t see at the Oscars this Sunday

We love the Oscars, but we admit that they’re imperfect. With the ceremony only three days away, it’s time to be a little critical. The Academy frequently overlooks specific types of films that, in retrospect, we often consider to be some of the greatest. Comedies, for the most part, are rarely nominated and win even … Continue reading “What you won’t see at the Oscars this Sunday”

We love the Oscars, but we admit that they’re imperfect. With the ceremony only three days away, it’s time to be a little critical. The Academy frequently overlooks specific types of films that, in retrospect, we often consider to be some of the greatest.

Comedies, for the most part, are rarely nominated and win even less frequently. There are countless articles belaboring this point, but we’ll let this summary from The Atlantic do the talking. With the exception of the occasional quirky dramedy, comedy films almost never receive nods for the top awards. Of the nine films nominated for Best Picture this year, only American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street could be considered comedies – and that’s pushing the definition. While we would never expect something like The Hangover to go home with Oscar gold, classic comedies including Blazing Saddles, Airplane!, and This is Spinal Tap have all left the Oscars without any recognition. This is arguably the Academy Awards’ greatest repeated oversight.

Relatedly, the Academy also has a habit of overlooking films about youth. This year’s acting snub for Greta Gerwig in Frances Ha is part of a long tradition of ignoring coming-of-age stories. Outside of perhaps The Graduate and American Graffiti, it is difficult to find a single film about young people that the Academy loved; now-legendary director John Hughes was never once nominated for his filmography that includes The Breakfast Club and Ferris Bueller’s Day Off, and Truffaut’s groundbreaking The 400 Blows was not nominated for a Best Foreign Language Film award. Considering how often the Academy tips its hat to out-of-the-way gems like Nebraska, the repeated omission of youth stories is conspicuous.

These are perhaps another indication that the Oscars are never a good indicator of long-term acclaim. Or maybe it’s just easy to be bitter that Mel Brooks only won a single Academy Award.